Rwanda: A Stay of Execution?

Heavyweight showdowns rarely live up to their billing, and so it proved during last week’s highly-anticipated Westminster clash, which turned out to be more gunsmoke than gunfight. Despite the tough talk from rebel leader Mark Francois and his posse at the European Research Group, sheriff Sunak has forced them to holster their weapons (at least for the time being), managing to smuggle the Rwanda bill through the House of Commons on its second reading by a majority of 313 votes to 269.

The bill represents the last roll of the dice for a beleaguered Prime Minister; desperate to be taken seriously on immigration, and overcome last month’s Supreme Court ruling that the plan to send illegal Channel migrants to Rwanda was itself, illegal.

It was about as good a result as Sunak could have hoped for. For all their very public bluster, the various rebel factions within the Conservative Party could produce little more than abstentions – 29 of them to be precise, with not one single Tory MP voting against the government. ERG chief, Francois, had previously advised the government it would be “best advised to pull the bill and to come up with a revised version that works better to this one, which had so many holes in it”, while New Conservatives member Danny Kruger had urged Sunak to merely “improve the bill”. In the end, a stay of execution appears to have been granted:

https://x.com/Peston/status/1734645881452761271?s=20

Those with their eye on the ball might well ask just what the hell is going on? Weren’t the rebels out for blood? Didn’t Robert Jenrick resign in principle at the astronomical immigration figures, and the government’s watered-down legislation to deal with them? Wasn’t Suella Braverman hovering Brutus-like behind the scenes, waiting to stick the knife in? As Michael Curzon put it rather succinctly re the rebels – they bottled it.

Sunak soldiers on then, miraculously surviving what was effectively a vote of confidence on his premiership; a vote he did not deserve to win. In any normal set of political circumstances, the speculation that Rishi would be getting his marching orders any day now from the 1922 Committee would have been accurate; but then, these are abnormal – one might even go so far as to claim ‘unique’ times.

At least, I personally cannot recall a time when the Conservative Party was in such dire straits. Having spent the past year changing leaders like most of us change socks, it appears Tory HQ simply hasn’t got the stomach for another leadership election. Then there’s the endless factions, fighting amongst themselves – the so-called ‘Five Families’ grouping on the right (the ERG, the New Conservatives, the Northern Research Group, the Common Sense Group and No Turning Back) which accounts for over 100 Tory MPs, set against the moderate One Nation Tories (also over 100) on the other side. Finally, there’s the X factor (or more accurately the Aussie factor) – Nigel Farage fresh from the jungle, and Reform UK which is eating up Conservative votes and now reliably commands double figures in the opinion polls.

Ironically for Sunak, it may be his extreme unpopularity saving him. True, he may be languishing at -49 percent approval ratings (that’s Boris Johnson territory shortly before he was shown the door), but while dead on his feet, he’s the perfect fall guy! Why replace him prematurely without all the cards in play, when all his successor will be guaranteed is to take the flak for his disastrous policies?

Sunak may just have saved his Christmas turkey, but he’s in for all-out civil war come 2024. His Rwanda bill has the spectacular quality of appealing to no one. The opposition benches would vote it down no matter what it contained; the right of the party has promised to vote it down in January should the promised amendments not be adhered to, and the centrists have only voted with the government on the proviso that there are no future amendments.

Whatever the PM may have wanted for Christmas, he’s unlikely to get more than a Damocletian sword hovering unsteadily above his neck. How exactly is he supposed to simultaneously appease the Tory pinkos who baulk at the idea of any cap on immigration, while appearing butch enough to pacify the ‘right-wing’ (actual) Conservatives, who possess arcane notions such as borders are there to be controlled? Something’s got to give.

What’s worse for Sunak is that this latest Tory civil war is only just beginning. It’s Brexit Mach II: instead of tearing itself to pieces at the prospect of who governs Britain, the Conservative Party are now fighting over whether there’s any point governing it.

More than anything, the outcome is likely to depend on timing. Everyone, it seems, is waiting for their opponents to blink first. Suella never made a serious coup attempt, nor did the rebels on Wednesday evening; Farage has not revealed his hand, a significant no-confidence postbag has failed to materialise at Sir Graham Brady’s door, and even Sunak himself has been enjoying the relative peace of the Covid inquiry.

One thing remains crystal clear however – on its current trajectory, the Conservative Party is headed for a far worse oblivion than their 1997 drubbing at the hands of Tony Blair, which saw their seats reduced from 343 to just 165. Noted psephologist Sir John Curtice predicts the Tories will sink to around 130 seats – already the party’s worst general election performance of all-time, however I don’t think he goes far enough. At its current polling, Reform UK is already expected to steal 35 seats from the Tories – and that’s without Farage fully on-board. A rejuvenated and genuinely right-wing choice at the ballot box, could conceivably put Sunak under 100 seats.

It doesn’t have to be this way.

Someone at Tory HQ might mention to Rishi, there is a radical solution to the immigration crisis, which does not involve the Rwandan headache at all:

1. A) As lethal a combination as Vanessa Paradis, Château Lafite and Profiteroles may be, France is not a war-torn nation. Install the Navy in the Channel, and drag the boats back.

2. B) Failing that, illegal migrants are to be housed a boatload at a time in MPs second homes, starting with those at the Home Office. The immigration ‘crisis’ would be solved within a week.

3. C) Any surplus illegals who can’t be housed in MP’s 2nd (and primary residences) can be sent ad hoc to the homes of virtue-signalling celebrities; after all, who could be more deserving of the benefits of ‘diversity’?

Rishi, rather than waiting for the axe to fall, why not do the decent thing?

Frank Haviland is the author of Banalysis: The Lie Destroying the West, and writes a Substack here.

This piece first appeared in The European Conservative, and is reproduced by kind permission.

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